- a later tax fund windfall
- Marie Kondo-driven closet cleaning
- much warmer April weather compared to last year
For the first two trends I recommend you read the full article — it’s a very interesting take, especially the Marie Kondo-effect.
For the weather portion, Pam and I chatted on Friday and you can get the jist of our conversation from the snippet below.
The Weather Company just released its spring forecast, and Paul Walsh, IBM’s global director for consumer strategy, says it couldn’t be better for fashion retail. After a particularly late winter, spring will come early this year with milder weather than last. It will supply a favorable tailwind to fashion retail.
While fashion retailers think in terms of seasons, consumers react to weather. “Now a days, we don’t buy based on the calendar; we buy based on how we feel. For seasonal apparel, the switch is turned on when it feels like spring,” Walsh told me. “Only then do we look into our closets and say it is time to update.”
It’s what Walsh calls the “cabin-fever effect.” Last year it happened quite late as spring didn’t really turn until late April and early May. Combined with an earlier than usual Easter last year, people didn’t feel like it was time to refresh their wardrobes until much later in the year.
This year will be different, as a late Easter, April 21, will give a longer runway to sell spring and summer fashions. “When it starts to feel like spring, we will see an extra amount of demand,” Walsh predicts, which should start to happen next week.
Given the differences in last year’s and this year’s spring, he sees retailers will benefit from good weather-driven comps. “Our predictions show that it will be a warmer than normal April,” he says, noting that The Weather Company is a subsidiary of IBM.
I’ve been and continue to be very bullish on spring weather-driven demand this year — particularly for fashion retail.
As a recap, here are the 4 reasons (incremental to the trends Pam noted) that will drive a weather-driven tailwind to spring fashion this season:
- An incredibly easy weather comparison to last year.
- Cabin fever. It’s been a late winter with a colder than normal February and first half of March. When the weather breaks consumers will be breaking out, and spending. It happens every year and it will likely happen 3 or 4 weeks earlier this year.
- A later Easter means a longer pre-holiday selling period with weather conditions that will be much milder than last year. More time to shop due to the earlier break to spring weather means more money in the cash register.
- The weather impact is greater than ever due to the combined effect of better forecasting, mobile access to more accurate forecasts and the synergistic impact of social media.