My Sunday Tweet Storm: Bad Weather Means Bad Restaurant Reviews

Posted By paulewalsh 5 May 2019

I started my weekly Weather Means Business Tweet Storm series two weeks ago and as predicted it’s morphed into more of a bi-weekly-ish effort.

Even that may be overly ambitious.

Never-the-less, there’s been some really interesting weather / business impact stories and studies over the last week that I’m excited to share.

Here are some of my favorites  —

Bad weather leads to bad restaurant reviews 

Bad weather has a fundamental impact on both  what we do and how we feel. It’s a universal truth that has both economic and social impacts.

Turns out the impact of the funk brought on by rainy weather has a measurable impact on the snark (and, presumably) tip level of diners at restaurants.

You can get a copy of the full study at the link here — It’s raining complaints! How weather factors drive consumer comments and word-of-mouth — or you can watch the short video below.

Fascinating study!

The Reverse Bath Tub 

Retail sales in both the US and western Europe will be facing strong weather-driven headwinds in May as colder temperatures will be slamming the brakes on demand for all things spring.

Apparel and Lawn & Garden categories and seasonable consumables (think BBQ’s and beer) will be particularly hard hit.  This will negatively impact home centers,  mass merchants, specialty apparel and department stores — essentially all of retail.

Making this worse will be the incredibly difficult comparison to last year’s record warm weather in both the US (warmest in 124 years) and the UK (warmest on record)

It’s a case of Mother Nature playing hard ball — and below the belt.

For more on what I call “the reverse bath tub effect” read my post from last month — Did the Bomb Cyclone Blow up Spring Retail Sales?

The Sport Performance Summit Atlanta

This tweet references an interesting and very timely topic:  using weather data and analytics to optimize performance —  in sport and  business.

It’s timely in that I’m going to be speaking about this topic at The Sport Performance Summit Atlanta at Mercedes Benz Stadium next month.

I’m particularly excited to be sharing the same stage as the Commandant of the Marine Corps and the GM of the Atlanta Falcons.

Tax Refunds, Marie Kondo and the Weather

Posted By paulewalsh 26 March 2019

In a (great!) article published on Forbes.com this past weekend retail contributor Pam Danziger pointed out 3 trends that are converging to create new demand for spring fashion this year:

  • a later tax fund windfall
  • Marie Kondo-driven closet cleaning
  • much warmer April weather compared to last year

See: 3 Trends Are Converging To Drive New Demand For Fashion Retail

For the first two trends I recommend you read the full article — it’s a very interesting take, especially the Marie Kondo-effect.

For the weather portion, Pam and I chatted on Friday and you can get the jist of our conversation from the snippet below.


The Weather Company just released its spring forecast, and Paul Walsh, IBM’s global director for consumer strategy, says it couldn’t be better for fashion retail. After a particularly late winter, spring will come early this year with milder weather than last. It will supply a favorable tailwind to fashion retail.


While fashion retailers think in terms of seasons, consumers react to weather. “Now a days, we don’t buy based on the calendar; we buy based on how we feel. For seasonal apparel, the switch is turned on when it feels like spring,” Walsh told me. “Only then do we look into our closets and say it is time to update.”


It’s what Walsh calls the “cabin-fever effect.” Last year it happened quite late as spring didn’t really turn until late April and early May. Combined with an earlier than usual Easter last year, people didn’t feel like it was time to refresh their wardrobes until much later in the year.


This year will be different, as a late Easter, April 21, will give a longer runway to sell spring and summer fashions. “When it starts to feel like spring, we will see an extra amount of demand,” Walsh predicts, which should start to happen next week.


Given the differences in last year’s and this year’s spring, he sees retailers will benefit from good weather-driven comps. “Our predictions show that it will be a warmer than normal April,” he says, noting that The Weather Company is a subsidiary of IBM.

I’ve been and continue to be very bullish on spring weather-driven demand this year — particularly for fashion retail.

See: Expected Milder Spring a Godsend for U.S. Retail

As a recap, here are the 4 reasons (incremental to the trends Pam noted) that will drive a weather-driven tailwind to spring fashion this season:

  • An incredibly easy weather comparison to last year.
  • Cabin fever. It’s been a late winter with a colder than normal February and first half of March. When the weather breaks consumers will be breaking out, and spending. It happens every year and it will likely happen 3 or 4 weeks earlier this year.
  • A later Easter means a longer pre-holiday selling period with weather conditions that will be much milder than last year. More time to shop due to the earlier break to spring weather means more money in the cash register.
  • The weather impact is greater than ever due to the combined effect of better forecasting, mobile access to more accurate forecasts and the synergistic impact of social media.